Covid 19 simulation
As I did not found yet an open source covid 19 simulation, I tried to write one myself.
The result can be found on github https://github.com/adoerzbach/covid19simulation. I know that no simulation really is able to predict the future of the pandemic exactly. But with a simulation you can at least try to predict the outcome of some scenarios in a scientific manner. I checked the model on the data available from the epidemic outbreak at Wuhan. It is quite near the data which I was able to find on the internet. For Switzerland I was not able to get well validated data for some parameters. The data provided is missing key figures for: How many people infected are there? How is the age structure and health condition of people hospitalized, died and having mild symptoms?
If this data would be available a much better prediction of the outcome would be possible. But I tried to get some realistic estimates from the data available on cases on cruising ships 2020 coronavirus pandemic on cruise ships and some other resources.
If you have any better data and would like to check the model, feel free.
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